Metals Forecast 2014 – from more than 20 World Market Reserach

Metals Forecast 2014 – from more than 20 World Market Reserach

#Gold (Au)

Average 2014 : $1,219.00

High 2014 : $1,379.00

Low : $1,067.00

#Silver (Ag)

Average 2014 : $19.95

High 2014 : $23.94

Low : $16.37

#Platinum (Pt)

Average 2014 : $1,490.00

High 2014 : $1,650.00

Low : $1,300.00

#Palladium (Pd)

Average 2014 : $774.81

High 2014 : $863.21

Low : $659.96

Summary : 

GOLD by Martin MURENBEELD

Dundee Capital Markets, Victoria

Range: $1,075 - $1,550

Average: $1,250

2013 proved to be a very difficult year for gold,and for gold forecasters! Indeed, it was difficult at the start of 2013 to forecast that over 800 tonnes of gold would flow out of the ETF sector over the course of the year and that the net-long position of the “speculators” on COMEX would decline by the quivalent of over 600 tonnes. Had it not been for surging demand in China, and Asia more generally, on the back of weaker gold prices, the gold market might well be digesting a sub-$1,000 price at this time.

The proximate reasons, in retrospect, included the magnetic pull of the surging US equity market, which caused many gold ETF holders to shift strategy. Europe did not fall apart, inflation remained noticeable by its absence and Fed tapering showed up in the FOMC minutes somewhat earlier than most had anticipated.

The good news going forward is that the gold ETF sector is extremely unlikely to disgorge another 800+ tonnes in 2014, nor are speculators likely to go net-short 600+ tonnes in 2014. With every central bank in developed economies hoping to boost inflation, there is sufficient room to speculate that the gold market will make a turn in 2014 and end the year higher than where it started. Debt servicing problems in the southern eurozone will become more acute in 2014 on the back of disinflation/deflation, which will then also make the European elections in May that much more important.

To be sure, the US dollar is likely to remain a headwind for gold in 2014, and to the degree equity markets remain attractive investment, interest in gold will be tempered. However, Indian consumers will find ways around their import tariffs, which hurt local demand in 2013, and specific central banks will likely take advantage of depressed gold prices to add gold to their reserves (with the People’s Bank of China the obvious central bank in this regard). Mine output will be stable in 2014 and hedging will be limited.

GOLD by Tom KENDALL

Credit Suisse, London

Range: $950 - $1,265

Average: $1,080

Has the floor been found in gold? No, is our unequivocal answer. We think US monetary policy and markets’ anticipation of it remains key to gold.  A strengthening US economy will likely see rates markets test the durability of the Fed’s forward guidance – we expect the resulting rise in yields in a low inflation environment to see gold break down through the 2013 low. On its current trend, gold will trade below $1,000 before the end of the year.

see full statement : http://goo.gl/X3G3hV

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